China’s primary aluminum production to peak in next 1-2 years
Time:Wed, 04 Dec 2024 06:03:47 +0800
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In the next one to two years, China's primary aluminum production will peak, and the contradiction between global supply and demand will intensify. Alumina costs fluctuate greatly, companies with high short-term self-sufficiency rates are more profitable, and companies with long-term bauxite resources have an advantage.
Low electricity costs secure primary aluminum capacity. Xinjiang and Yunnan have stable electricity prices, while Shandong has fluctuating power prices. If the coal price exceeds CNY 900/ton, Shandong has a cost disadvantage; if it is less than CNY 600/ton, the cost of primary aluminum is the lowest.
Alumina prices have risen this year due to high-cost production cuts and low-cost production that has not been put into production. A new low-cost production capacity of over 7 million tons next year will cause prices to fall. However, the concentration of bauxite supply globally has driven up costs and put the alumina industry under pressure.
