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During the China's National Day holiday, the market price of ferrochrome remained weak and stable, and ferrochrome trading was closed with relatively few transactions. The production cost of ferrochrome factories was high, and the market was mostly in a wait-and-see state. Due to limited actual demand for ferrochrome, downstream price suppression sentiment still exists.
During the National Day holiday, the chrome ore market maintained stable operation. In terms of price, the market quotation range for South African 40-42% refined powder at Tianjin Port is 58.5-59.5 yuan/dmtu, and the futures price for South African 40-42% chromium refined powder is 270 US dollars/ton.
Supply:
In August 2024, the total export volume of South African chrome ore was 1.648 million tons, a decrease of 15.3% compared to the previous month and a decrease of 4.1% compared to the previous year. Among them, 697,000 tons of chrome ore were exported to China, a decrease of 28.6% month on month and 14.2% year-on-year. 824,000 tons of chrome ore were exported to Mozambique, an increase of 16.6% month on month and 19.8% year-on-year. The total export volume of South African chrome from January to August 2024 was 13.7165 million tons, an increase of 22.9% year-on-year. The quantity exported to China was 6.6308 million tons, an increase of 28.6% year-on-year. The quantity exported to Mozambique was 5.5439 million tons, an increase of 15.9% year-on-year. The quantity exported to Indonesia was 167,400 tons, an increase of 148.8% year-on-year. It is expected that the supply will slightly decline after the holiday, and the inventory level of Chinese domestic ports will remain stable. During the National Day holiday, the atmosphere of inquiries and purchasing intentions from downstream ferrochrome mills was relatively weak, and traders mostly maintained pre holiday quotes temporarily, waiting for changes in downstream stocking demand after the holiday.
Demands:
The production of high carbon ferrochrome in September 2024 was 784,700 tons, a decrease of 1% compared to the previous month and an increase of 17.79% year-on-year. The main production area in Inner Mongolia produced 528,700 tons in September, a decrease of 0.41% compared to the previous month and an increase of 27.9% year-on-year. The cumulative total production of high carbon ferrochrome in China from January to September 2024 was 6.72 million tons, an increase of 27.1% year-on-year. Steel plants' bidding price of ferrochrome in October fell by 400 yuan/ton, exceeding market expectations and exacerbating market pessimism. It is expected that the overall production of high carbon ferrochrome in China will have a slight decline in October 2024.
During the National Day holiday, the trading in the chrome ore market was average, and the overall market volatility was limited. After the holiday, the fundamentals gradually tended towards a gradual increase in inventory, and there may be some room for a slight price decrease.