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Iron-ore sank below $90 a ton for the first time since 2022 as industrial commodities faced sustained pressure from tepid Chinese demand and gathering worries over global growth. Futures for iron-ore have fallen by more than a third this year as an unresolved steel crisis in China threatens demand for the raw material. But there are broader headwinds too, with base metals and crude oil also retreating in recent weeks as 2024 turns out to be a jittery year across the commodities complex.
“Investors are shifting focus from US inflation to growth fears,” said Jia Zheng, head of trading at Shanghai Soochow Jiuying Investment Management Co. “China lacks significant stimulus support and the market is pessimistic.” The more cautious mood in metals was underscored last week by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. hacking about $5 000 a ton off its long-standing bullish copper forecast — largely because of soft Chinese demand.
Uncertainty around the US presidential election in November would keep the global economy subdued and weigh on metals prices, Citigroup said. Iron-ore fell as much as 2.3% to $89.60 a ton in Singapore, and traded at $90.60 as of 10:45 a.m. local time. Aluminum dropped 0.3% after notching an eighth daily decline on Friday. The LMEX Index of six metals is now up by only 3% this year, compared with 25% in mid-May. Consumption of steel in China has weakened because of the country’s protracted real estate slowdown, with the world’s biggest steel producer, China Baowu Steel Group Corp, saying the industry could be facing a worse crisis than the downturns in 2008 and 2015. While exports and growth in other sectors are softening the blow, cuts to steel output have left the iron-ore market saddled with excess supply.
Former People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang said on Friday that the country should focus on ending deflation, a rare admission by a prominent Chinese figure that falling prices are threatening the growth outlook. Still, steel-buying typically recovers after the summer months, which could provide a respite for mills. “We expect iron-ore prices to find some support from mid-September as China’s autumn construction season picks up, and on seasonal restocking ahead of the Golden Week holiday,” said RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker, referring to a one-week break in China at the start of October.